Group 2- American Foreign Policy Memo #2
To: The Biden
Administration
From: Stephen Bogli,
Matthew Dias, Spencer Higgs, Aidan Ridings, and Leah Tabor
Date: 3/20/2022
RE: Countering
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Issue: Combatting China’s Belt and Road
Initiative (BRI) inequalities and risks
Executive
Summary:
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a global infrastructure and
development plan which encompasses one third of the world’s GDP and over 60% of
the world's population. Despite the BRI’s far outreach and cooperation with
developing countries, our analysis of the infrastructures development indicates
that certain risks have already had negative effects on both the United States
and many developing countries. Included in these risks are unfair debt
obligations, high amounts of corruption, and potentially irreversible
environmental and social structures. To reduce these risks, we propose three
strategic options: Create a United States led BRI alternative, institute
enforcement on social and environmental shortcomings through judicial systems, or
deter corruption using economic sanctions. In fixing the problems of the
current BRI, action must be taken quickly as once infrastructure is built, it
is impossible to reverse the harm that has already been imposed on human rights
and the global economy.
Relevant National Interests: China has been seeking to expand its international
influence through its Belt and Road Initiative.
Developing from an initial focus on domestic infrastructure to a broader
focus on infrastructure in developing countries, the BRI’s goals have expanded
since its creation in 2013. Countering
the BRI is important for American interests because of the BRI’s effects on
climate and debt. The BRI has largely
sponsored climate-unfriendly infrastructure projects, most notably coal-fired
power plants, which could damage efforts by the U.S., China, and other
countries to respond to the climate crisis and mitigate the effects of climate
change. It has been argued that the BRI
has increased debt for developing countries and could damage these countries’
abilities to pay their debts, especially while trying to navigate the coronavirus
pandemic and the lack of vaccine equity throughout the world. Increasing debt in other developing countries
could weaken their governments and ultimately hurt trade, national security,
and other important points of interest that could ultimately create instability
within these countries before ultimately also harming U.S. interests. Can the U.S. and its allies successfully
offer an alternative to the BRI, as is underway with the Build Back Better
World (B3W) initiative?
Analysis: Chinese President Xi Jinping’s
signature foreign policy undertaking, the Belt and Road Initiative, is now
considered the world’s largest infrastructure program. Although the BRI began
as an effort to connect China’s modernized, coastal cities to its
underdeveloped interior and bordering neighbors, the initiative quickly outgrew
is regional corridors. There are currently 139 countries involved in the
initiative; members include U.S. allies and partners such as Greece, Italy,
Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, as well as countries that align geopolitically with
China such as Cambodia and Laos. Since the initiative’s launch in 2013, Chinese
corporations and banks have financed the building and development of power
plants, railways, highways, ports, telecommunications infrastructure,
fiber-optic cables, smart cities, and other projects around the world. The vast
majority of these infrastructure projects have taken place in developing
nations. If implemented sustainably and responsibly, the BRI holds the
potential to meet the infrastructure and economic needs of numerous developing
countries. A 2019 study conducted by economic consultants forecasted that the
BRI was likely to boost world GDP by $7.1 trillion per annum by the year 2040.[1]
However, there are several reasons why the United States should be wary of the
Belt and Road Initiative.
· The BRI is a central component of Xi’s “Major Country
Diplomacy” strategy, which calls for China’s assumption of greater global
leadership.[2] The
initiative would subsidize privileged market entry for state-owned and
non-market oriented Chinese companies and enable China to exert serious
political pressure and project its power more widely. The BRI’s implementation
of Chinese technology and technical standards would also give China the
opportunity to lock developing countries into a state of dependency. The BRI
may also enable China to exert a destabilizing amount of economic pressure over
the energy sector; in totality, the initiative intends to “affect”
three-quarters of the known energy reserves in the world.[3]
· The initiative’s funding of “economically questionable
projects” in heavily indebted countries without the utilization of expert debt
sustainability analysis has the potential to undermine global stability and
increase the likelihood of a near-future debt crisis.[4]
· While BRI members are diverse, states that have refrained
from joining the initiative are generally more democratic, politically stable, and
economically developed than those who have endorsed and participated in the
initiative.[5]
· The BRI’s dependence on carbon-intensive infrastructure
will complicate climate change mitigation by ensuring a decades long dependence
on coal-fired power plants.[6]
Strategic Options:
Strategy One: Create alternatives to the BRI for developing
countries.
This could be done
by expanding existing systems and practices found in the United States
Export-Import Bank, the World Bank, the Blue Dot Network, and the Build Back
Better World (B3W) programs and institutions featuring American
participation. Increasing American
funding would be a major part of this proposal.
Current American intervention is ineffective because it only focuses on
addressing part of the problem. The Blue
Dot Network (BDN) fails to fund its projects and only supervises and certifies
existing projects.[7] However, even with its flaws, India has been
interested in potentially participating in BDN programs.[8] Continuing to collaborate with America’s
partners in the Group of 7 (G7) countries could also help motivate
investment. Increasing funding though
the U.S. Export-Import Bank could successfully complete more infrastructure
projects and perhaps even ‘complete’ BRI-led projects by making them more
climate-friendly: for example, electrifying rail lines and converting power
plants to make them more efficient.
Increasing trade with strategic regional allies and partners like Japan,
India, and Australia could encourage more participation from allies and
partners and ultimately help these development projects succeed and benefit
both developed and developing countries.
Pros: The United States
decreased funding for developing countries under the Trump administration;
reversing this trend could benefit interests both for the U.S. and developing
countries. Programs led by the U.S. and
allies can, and should, focus more on promoting climate-friendly and gender
equality actions and investments in these countries, as China’s investments
have largely been coal-fired and dangerous for climate change.[9] Focusing on
climate-friendly responses would strengthen the U.S.’ influence as a leader in
responding to climate change and could work to reduce risks posed by climate
change. Offering a strong alternative to
the BRI could encourage competition and ultimately incite both the BRI and a
U.S.-led coalition alternative to work to improve their own standards, which
would benefit the U.S., its allies and partners, China, and developing
countries. The United States and its G7
partners could also be more successful than China in ensuring transparency,
about the lack of which has drawn criticism from the World Bank and others.[10]
Cons: This funding
increase would likely be difficult to implement, especially with likely
gridlock in Congress. As the national
Build Back Better projects have mostly stalled in Congress, it may be difficult
to gain support for international development as the U.S., like all nations,
tries to rebuild after the damage caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Like the BRI, the U.S. Export-Import Bank has
itself participated in climate-harming projects. If standards at the Export-Import Bank were
not revised, the U.S. could ultimately harm the planet in a similar way as the
BRI. This would limit U.S. influence
abroad, especially with the efforts of the Biden administration (and previously
the Obama administration) to respond to climate change and mitigate risks.
Strategy Two: Institute enforcement on environmental, social, and
governance factors of the Belt and Road Initiative through investment and a rejuvenated judicial system.
Research from scholarly
social institutions provides insight on current environmental and social issues
regarding labor within the Belt and Road Initiative. Through the institution of
green investment and United Nation Sustainable Development Goals along with the
implementation of labor courts within developing countries, it may be possible to
alleviate many problems that disproportionately affect lower-income individuals
across the globe.
Pros: The current Belt and Road Initiative
struggles both environmentally and in the protection of labor laws. While
economists may point out the added value of the BRI, they fail to consider
studies by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and Council on Foreign Relations
(CFR). The WWF, who primarily studies the effects of climate change on
wildlife, concluded that the Belt and Road Initiative overlaps 1,739 biodiverse
areas where China’s use of non-renewable coal energy may directly threaten up
to 265 species of animals and promote deforestation. We establish support and
recommend the WWF’s primary solution of direct financial investment into
environmental technical services and implementation of the United Nations
Sustainable Development Goals to ensure a greener BRI.[11] Regarding labor laws,
research by the Council on Foreign Relations indicates that China is using
their own citizen's labor in other countries to drive down labor costs and
increase productivity. This is an inherent problem to other developing
countries as the BRI was initially seen as a way to increase local hirings and
wages. Additionally, there have been reports of inhumane working conditions
within the BRI.[12]
To solve these problems, we recommend that the United States invest in judicial
labor court systems and investigation agencies within developing countries to
promote a more equal labor system in countries under the Belt and Road
Initiative.
Cons: The principal downturn to enforcing
environmental, social, and governance factors within the Belt and Road Initiative
is the cost. The United States is currently not a part of the BRI, and would
rather work with G7 countries. For this
reason, any investment into the BRI would directly support a cause where that
the United States does not stand to see immediate monetary benefits. Such an
investment would not only need bipartisan support between the two major U.S.
parties but may also not be a favorable investment in the eyes of U.S. citizens
struggling on the back of a pandemic and energy crisis. To counteract this
downside, a United States alternative could encourage the G7 to establish a
partnership with China and the BRI, promoting a more environmentally and developmentally
friendly global economy while ensuring that the U.S. also stands to benefit.
Strategy Three: Deter corruption within
the Belt and Road Initiative through use of economic sanctions.
In 2019, President
Xi pledged during a summit that China’s BRI will “focus on transparency and
clean governance”. During this summit, President Xi reiterated that “Everything
should be done in a transparent way and we should have zero tolerance for
corruption”.[13]
Since this speech, corruption has spread from China to the countries in which
their BRI runs through. Corruption is mostly seen in countries which China
partners with, some of which struggle to keep a hold on corruption to begin
with. Most corruption happens in areas where large scale projects are taking
place as it is easier to hand off money in such situations.[14] In some cases, this money
is not only pocketed, but sent back to China.[15] Currently the U.S. has
placed sanctions on China and the Belt and Road Initiative, but it is not going
far enough to stop the corruption. The BRI has led to China pumping billions of
dollars into corrupt governments and regimes, further intensifying the corruption.[16] Thus, proving that the
current sanctions are inadequate and that they need to be changed. As it
stands, the U.S. has sanctioned companies which work with China to develop their
Belt and Road Initiative.[17] At one time, the U.S.
placed sanctions on Chinese firms which barred them from doing business with
U.S. corporations. The sanctions specifically targeted one specific major
player in China called the Chinese Communications Construction Company (CCCC)
who is responsible for much of the development within the BRI.[18]
Pros: Implementing stronger sanctions could
further limit the spread of the BRI initiative if the correct “targets” are
hit, such as the CCCC who’s dealings with the U.S. had been previously
sanctioned.[19]
Doing so may promote other countries to limit their dealings with specific
companies in China, as they are sanctioned by the U.S. (in hopes of giving a
warning). Overall, placing sanctions on the BRI may persuade partner countries to
find a way out of their agreements, and persuade other counties NOT to engage
in the BRI with China.[20] Also, the use of stronger
sanctions comes with the fact that China and the U.S. are major trade partners.
The potential money that the Chinese could lose due to the strengthened
sanctions could, theoretically, slow progress on the BRI.
Cons: As The New Yorker mentions,
sanctions are something that are not instantaneous, and the impacts can take a
while to be seen. On that same note, The New Yorker states that sanctions
do not tend to be the driving factor behind the targets change in ideologies
and actions (which would present an issue here).[21] Further sanctioning
China’s Belt and Road initiative brings with it the concern that China could
turn around and sanction you. In some cases, sanctions have been seen to impact
the citizens of those countries being sanctioned. Sanctions which are “too heavy”
can lead to humanitarian crises.[22] Placing sanctions on
China because of the corruption within the BRI may have unintended consequences
for countries who “participate” in the BRI. When combining the BRI debt that China
has, and the countries who borrow from China, the sanctions could have a ripple
effect harming countries who got roped into the BRI.[23] As it stands, many of the
countries tied into the BRI are U.S. allies who may feel the impacts of
sanctions on China.[24] Increasing sanctions can
also have negative consequences as the tensions with China may heighten to a
new level.
Recommendation:
Our
recommendation to the Biden Administration is to create effective alternatives
to the Belt and Road Initiative so that developing nations may have access to many
potential positive benefits.
Implementation: Following our
recommendation, the Biden Administration would need to develop and present several
effective alternatives that would appeal to developing countries and the United
States, ensuring America has enough of a foothold within these institutions. Institutions
like the World Bank, the Blue Dot Network, and the Build Back Better World can
be seen as models in terms of global funding and large-scale acceptance. This
in turn would result in the increased availability, appeal, and benefits to the
United States and other member countries, while also combatting the inequality
and risks acquainted with China’s BRI.
Talking Points:
·
Expanding and Revitalizing Existing Systems: Foundational in
this strategy is the rejuvenation of existing systems and practices such as the
US Export-Import Bank, the World Bank, the Blue Dot Network, and the B3W
programs and institutions which will provide developing countries a competitive
alternative to China’s BRI.
·
Developing Stronger Relationships with Strategic
Regional and Economic Allies: Making an effort to develop stronger
relationships with strategic allies such as Japan, Australia, and India will
benefit the United States economically long-term. In addition, these invigorated
relationships will ease the financial burden of America’s investment into
revitalizing these global organizations.
·
Reentering the World Stage: America’s display
of strong leadership, especially in defense of global climate, labor, and
economic concerns, will help mend the country’s global image and set us up for
a new generation of American strength, influence, and integrity
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[1] Elaine Cooper, “| The Chartered
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[4] David Sacks and Jennifer Hillman,
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[5] Jack Nolan and Wendy Leutert,
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[6] David Sacks and Jennifer Hillman,
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[8] Abhishek Kumar, “’Blue Dot Network’: Idea,
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[9] Jerre V Hansbrough, “FROM THE BLUE
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[17] Shannon Tiezzi, “With Latest
Sanctions, US Casts a Shadow over China's Belt and Road,” The Diplomat (The
Diplomat, August 28, 2020), https://thediplomat.com/2020/08/with-latest-sanctions-us-casts-a-shadow-over-chinas-belt-and-road/.
[18] Shannon Tiezzi, “With Latest
Sanctions, US Casts a Shadow over China's Belt and Road,” The Diplomat (The
Diplomat, August 28, 2020), https://thediplomat.com/2020/08/with-latest-sanctions-us-casts-a-shadow-over-chinas-belt-and-road/.
[19] Shannon Tiezzi, “With Latest
Sanctions, US Casts a Shadow over China's Belt and Road,” The Diplomat (The
Diplomat, August 28, 2020), https://thediplomat.com/2020/08/with-latest-sanctions-us-casts-a-shadow-over-chinas-belt-and-road/.
[20] Shannon Tiezzi, “With Latest
Sanctions, US Casts a Shadow over China's Belt and Road,” The Diplomat (The
Diplomat, August 28, 2020), https://thediplomat.com/2020/08/with-latest-sanctions-us-casts-a-shadow-over-chinas-belt-and-road/.
[21] Robin Wright, “Why Sanctions Too
Often Fail,” The New Yorker (The New Yorker , March 7, 2022), https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/why-sanctions-too-often-fail.
[22] Richard Hanania, “Ineffective,
Immoral, Politically Convenient: America’s Overreliance on Economic Sanctions
and What to Do about It,” Cato.org (CATO Institute, February 18, 2020), https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/ineffective-immoral-politically-convenient-americas-overreliance-economic-sanctions#introduction.
[23] Jessica C Liao, “How Bri Debt Puts
China at Risk,” – The Diplomat (for The Diplomat, October 27, 2021), https://thediplomat.com/2021/10/how-bri-debt-puts-china-at-risk/.
[24] Giorgio Cafiero, “Defying Us Caesar Act, China Admits
Syria into Bri,” The Cradle (The Cradle, January 14, 2022), https://thecradle.co/Article/analysis/5769.
Lucas Colaci
ReplyDeleteI like that this group proposed an alternative. I think this is a great and realistic idea. This would also help prove to the world that the united states is "back" and supporting its allies and being a true world leader. This is a great opportunity to step up to the plate to challenge China with low risk of the situation turning into a military altercation.
This was a very interesting memo to read! I really enjoyed how you broke up the potential solutions into a summary and explanation, then a pro and con list. This really made it a lot easier to understand both sides of the potential solutions to this issue, and helped grasp how truly complex this situation is. I also really agreed with the cons on the economic sanctions, as I feel they sometimes effect the innocent civilians more than the leaders, making it not as effective. It is a tricky situation, but hopefully the US will be able to find a way to assist in this situation in a way that does not put us or the citizens of China at too much of a disadvantage.
ReplyDeleteI really enjoyed reading this memo. I wasn't fully aware of the full extent of China's Belt and Road Initiative. The memo does a good job with giving a good background of what it is, how it is impactful, and lays out three detailed options for what the Biden Administration can do. These options also have defined pros and cons, which is unique when writing a memo. In my opinion, the best option would be the 1st option. Obviously Congressional gridlock would be difficult to overcome, but if Biden depicted an American BRI as a Marshall Plan type of project, and got NATO allies on board, maybe others would get behind the initiative. Sanctioning China may be effective; however, I fear they may sanction us back, and that would certainly not be in America's interest. Overall great job with the memo
ReplyDelete- Andrew P
I thoroughly enjoyed reading this memo. Lacking knowledge of China's Belt and Road Initiative meant nothing after reading the memo. It gave a very good background on what it is and what the impact is. I also appreciate the information on what the Biden Administration could do. The memo was very clear and the ideas were laid out very well.
ReplyDelete- Vahn
This was a very well written and thorough memo. The China Belt and Road initiative was not something I was familiar with before reading this memo. The strategic option section was also fairly strong and had well thought out strategies. It also weighed out the pros and cons of each strategy very well. I agree that these are the proper actions that the United States should take regarding this issue.
ReplyDeleteI found the memo very insightful about the BRI. It was very valuable that the memo addressed all aspects (economic, political, and climate) regarding the BRI. I think that the recommended option would beneficial in countering the BRI, however I also think that the U.S. should approach this on a moral level, rather than just a political level to counter China's influence and expand its own interests.
ReplyDeleteHonestly, I had never heard of China's Belt and Road Initiative before reading this memo. I am glad that this group informed me on a plan that will effect over sixty-percent of the world's population and is considered the centerpiece of Chinese foreign policy. As far as sanctions as concerned, I believe the United States should not be quick to hit China with sanctions regarding the initiative. 130 nations have offered support for the initiative, so the U.S can not just make this a U.S versus China issue; it has ramifications that go beyond the Sino-American relationship. However, if the initiative evidently violates the economic sovereignty of central Asian countries, then the U.S should take a larger role.
ReplyDelete- Nick McNamee
This is a really interesting topic. I am glad to see that you chose to include the negative effects on the climate that the Belt and Road initiative has as well as other threats to American Interests. It is important to recognize the disregard for many global goals that China exhibits, only one of which has to do with climate change. Especially since China has put on a front that they are interested in counteracting climate change in the global arena, it is important for the security of the United States' influence to acknowledge China's actions in this behavior.
ReplyDeleteI really enjoyed this memo a lot, and such actions and decisions made towards this issue have been well thought out. It is quite important to be informative about such things like the BRI, and this memo did a great job explaining it through and the solutions to be taken.
ReplyDeleteThis memo is a very effective example of showing the global interest held even for domestic projects in foreign countries, in this case, China. Your focus on the environmental effects that this initiative will have and how it could offset many of the efforts globally towards reducing emmisions, as well as the strategic disadvantages that are provided. I wish you tied a few more current events in to the cons, but ultimately you did a great job with this issue!
ReplyDelete-Mitchll
DeleteI really like the layout of the memo and how it is full of detail. It sparked interest because I never have looked into this problem at all, and it gave me applied new knowledge. Global interest heled in China to focus on environmental effects was very informative. Overall, this was a well-organized memo and enjoyable to read.
ReplyDeleteI have never heard of the Belt Road initiative so I really enjoyed reading your memo. I think it was a great topic choice because there are so many things in China that seem to be more well-known but this seems to be an important aspect of their infrastructure and international presence. I wonder if the Paris Climate Accord plays a role in the environment affects of this infrastructure and how the policies tie together. I think you did a great job of explaining different alternatives and how they would negatively and positively affect the U.S. I wonder if sanctions would have similar effects to the sanctions placed on Russia and can the US afford to impose any more sanctions on other global powers.
ReplyDeleteGreat piece, i think it sheds a lot of light onto the issue. But i think more fundamentally its not that the initiative is inherently BAD as it presents a massive interconnection of trade routes (a new Silk Road as it has been called), rather it is being implemented *carelessly* and as cheaply as possible. For instance, some of the provisions I am aware of are the signing over of land to either the Chinese government or Chinese companies who are in a vast majority of cases the companies receiving the funds to carry out construction on top of the aforementioned corruption and predatory lending/financing. I think a more reasonable approach is to go in with China (as G7) countries and subsidise their builds to ensure they are done *right* building diplomatic connections with Beijing and these developing nations at the same time to ensure this network remains a global one and not an exclusive economic zone for China and its allies.
ReplyDeleteThis memo was very insightful, and used many peer-reviewed sources to back up all of the information contained within. Before reading this memo, I didn't know a whole lot regarding the BRI, however, you do a good job explaining what it is and the pros and cons of the BRI. Although the argument to have the U.S. create alternatives is very persuasive, I feel that it would be extremely difficult to pass such an alternative in the hyper-polarized Congress that we have today. Additionally, an alternative to the BRI would likely be extremely expensive, especially if the U.S. were going to handle the project in an environmentally friendly way; an expensive project such as this, especially during a time when inflation is at its 50 year highest and the national debt higher than ever in United States history, it's best that the U.S. really consider the effects that such a plan would have domestically, in the near future, before full out creating an alternative to the BRI, which has 146 members already enrolled. Overall, this memo was very well put together, but I disagree with the conclusion, and believe that the U.S. should try to address their concerns directly with China before creating a program which will directly compete with theirs.
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